地下流体前兆模糊识别     

许秋龙 《内陆地震》1995,9(3):286-290

在地震的孕育、发生到发展的过程中，可能会出现多项地下流体观测量不同程度的前兆异常变化，这些异常变化是复杂多样、模糊不清的。引入模糊识别法对一定区域和一定时间段的地下流体观测数据进行了分析和处理，表明模糊识别法可较好地识别和分辨出地下流体前兆的地震异常。  相似文献   

新疆及其邻区强震活动与趋势预测     

高国英  韩月鹏 《内陆地震》1995,9(4):357-362

对１８８０￣１９９３年新疆及邻区７级以上强震活动特征进行了分析讨论，认为研究时段内７级以上强震活动有明显的活跃与平静交替现象。研究时段内的强震活动经历了５个轮回，每个轮回包括一个平静幕和一个活动幕，每个活动幕都有相对的主体活动区，主体活动区和７级以上单个强震都具有沿西昆仑－南天山－北天山－阿尔泰地震带往返迁移的特征。各地震带６级以上地震活动也具有明显的由西南向北东整体迁移的特征，并且这种时、空、强  相似文献   

新疆地震趋势的模糊灰色预测     

曲延军 《内陆地震》1995,9(4):363-368

从模糊数学和灰色系统理论两个不同角度来分析地震事件，把模糊数学的表达方式用于灰色灾变预测ＧＭ（１，１）中，建立了地震预测的模糊灰色模型。用此模型讨论了南北天山四个区（带）的震级序列，在等维情况下，对比了模糊灰色方法与单纯灰色方法的优劣，讨论了影响预测结果的因素，最后给出了不同目标震级下各区（带）的预测值。  相似文献   

Theory and Experimental Results about the Application of Remote Sensing to Earthquake Prediction     

Deng Mingde  Cui Chengyu  Geng NaiguangComprehensive Observation Brigade  SSB  Beijing  ChinaInstitute of Remote Sensing Application  Academia Sinica  Beijing  ChinaInstitute of Geophysics  SSB  Beijing  China 《中国地震研究》1995,(2)

In this paper,the theory for applying remote sensing to earthquake prediction has been elucidated and an experiment has been made.Through the experiment,it has been found that the characteristics and temperature of infrared radiant of rocks vary as a function of rock stress,the order of magnitude of radiance variation is 10-5(W/cm2 sr um),the amount of variation of the radiant temperature is 0.2℃~0.8℃ and some significant precursor information has been discovered.The experiment has verified preliminarily that the advanced technology of remote sensing can be applied to earthquake prediction.  相似文献   

Intensifying Earthquake Prediction in the Light of Action of International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction     

Gao Wenxue  Gao QinhuaState Seismological Bureau  Beijing  China Institute of Geology  SSB  Beijing  China 《中国地震研究》1995,(2)

This paper is a review on earthquake prediction and forecast research,progress in earthquake prediction work and pre-estimation of earthquake hazard degree in China in recent years.It indicates that China is the first country,the government of which has promoted and organized the state administration department on reduction of seismic hazards and ensured the socialization of earthquake prediction and forecast in the world.A program of earthquake prevention and protection and hazard reduction based on the results of research on earthquake occurrence regularities and prediction of earthquake preparation trend has been completed,and hence the socialization of results of earthquake prediction and forecast research can be expected to be in practice.The practical seismological works in last 20 years indicate that the earthquakes are not considered to be unpredictable,but it is a challenge remaining to be accepted.We are willing to cooperate with all friends who are engaged in earthquake prediction and forecas  相似文献   

A Preliminary Study on the Probabilistic Estimation of Deaths from Future Earthquakes in North China     

Fu ZhengxiangCenter for Analysis  Prediction  SSB  Beijing  China 《中国地震研究》1995,(4)

During the period from 1800 to 1989,the degree of fatalities(?from earthquakes in North China(Lat.34.0°-42.0°N,Long.107.5°-125.0°E)varied exponentially with the frequency of earthquake events(N),namely:N=37.71 exp(-0.72?(E-logD,D:deaths).For the periods from 1988 to 1998 and from 1999 to 2009,the probabilities for earthquakes to cause one thousand or more deaths in North China are estimated to be 0.37 and 0.50,respectively,by using the Gumbel's extreme value theory.  相似文献   

THE MEDIUM-RANGE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION OPERATION SYSTEM IN THE CHINA NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTER          下载免费PDF全文

Li Zechun 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1995,9(3):373-384

It is not only meteorological problems for the medium-range numerical weather prediction(NWP) research to be in operation,but also engineering and technological problems.Here we gener-ally described the results of research,engineering construction,operation information and testing,inthe course of set-up of medium-range NWP operation system in the China National MeteorologicalCenter.  相似文献   

华北北部地区2005年前地震危险性预测研究进展     

华北北部地区年前地震危险性预测研究组 《地震》1995,(4):391-395

综述了利用确定性和概率性相结合的预测方法，对华北北部地区２００５年前的地震危险性进行了概率预测研究。研究表明，该区在２００年前发生６级以上地震的概率为０．４５，其中涿鹿－怀来一带地区内每个计算单元中的发展概率最高，达到０．０２。  相似文献   

气氡日变与固体潮关系的探讨          下载免费PDF全文

张凌空 《地震工程学报》1995,17(2):40-45

本文通过北京顺义台气氡和体应变，气压，水位，水温及气温的综合对比观测，论证了地下水逸出氡日变曲线存在潮汐现象，其值与体应变固体潮理论值密切相关。由于用气氡资料预报地震是地球化学方法的一个新探索，因而本项工作为其深入研究提供了一定的实际观测基础。  相似文献   

地震活动性的细胞自动机模型   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文

刘桂萍  石耀霖  马丽 《地震工程学报》1995,17(2):20-25

本文在二维平面设计了一个模拟地震活动性的细胞自动机模型，分析了模拟地震离列的活动性，并探讨了强震前场兆和源兆的物理机制，结果表明，模型的地震序列很好地反映了实际地震的丛集特性、幂律关系和空间转移概率的稳定性等特点。  相似文献